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Iowa Capital Management, Inc. |
| Professionally Managed Futures Investments | |
| 202 South Second, Fairfield, Iowa 52556 641 469-5188 800 844-5188 fax: 641 472-2074 | |
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CTAs Not More Risky Than S&P By Dr. Thomas Schneeweis, University of Massachusetts Courtesy of the MFA Reporter, July 1996 |
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During the past decades, the investment management industry has undergone numerous changes. Today, while most investors concentrate on traditional investment
vehicles such as stocks, bonds, and currencies, an increasing number of alternative investment
products, such as managed futures (i.e., investment funds which used futures and
options markets as their primary investment vehicle), are becoming available which offer the
investor new means of increasing return while reducing risk through diversification. A current
study on "The Benefits of Managed Futures" (supported by the European Derivative Investments and Funds Association - EMFA)
offers an updated analysis of the benefits of managed futures. Managed futures performance is reviewed both as
a stand-alone investment and as an addition to existing investment portfolios. The study
describes the basis for the benefits of managed futures as lying in the differing investment styles and sector
specialization's of CTAs. This enables investors to create portfolios of managed futures
and traditional assets that offer higher expected returns in market cycles and market conditions
when traditional stock or bond market investments may offer lower expected returns. Results
of the study show:
1. That on a stand-alone basis, the risk (standard deviation) of an average individual
CTA is not more risky than the average stock in the S&P 500. Moreover, investment in
a portfolio of CTAs (e.g., MAR$CTA index) has similar risk to that of the S&P 500. In
addition, over the past ten years (1985-1995), investment in a portfolio of commodity trading
advisors (e.g., MAR$CTA index) provides risk and return benefits when considered as an addition
to a variety of existing passively and actively managed stock and bond portfolios (e.g., S&P 500,
Salomon Brothers US and World Government bond indices, Fidelity Magellan Fund and Fidelity
Intermediate bond fund, MSCI international and domestic stock indices).
2. Results also show that correlation tests comparing managed futures indices with traditional assets reveal an interesting property
of the relationship between managed futures returns and traditional asset classes. Overall,
the correlation between managed futures and stock portfolios is approximately zero. However,
when the data are segmented according to whether the stock market rose or fell, results
indicate that managed futures are negatively correlated with traditional assets (e.g., stock
and stock and bond portfolios) when these case market portfolios posted significant negative
returns, and are positively correlated when these portfolios report significant returns. Thus, managed
futures may offer unique asset allocation properties and may offer some of the hedging properties of a
put option at a lower cost.
It is hoped that the results of this study will put to rest many investor concerns. Simply put, most
traditional asset managers presently use futures and options markets in numerous ways (e.g., rebalance
portfolios, manage currency risk, trade bonds with option features such as convertibility or
callability). Most traditional money managers, however, are restricted by regulation or
convention from using more actively traded futures and options contracts. Moreover, as new
financial products come into existence, such as futures contracts traded on S&P 500 value or growth stock, managed futures may provide the most logical means of quickly taking advantage of the potential returns from such new products. The logical extension of using investment managers with specialized knowledge of traditional markets to obtain maximum return/risk tradeoffs is to
add specialized managers who can obtain the unique returns in market conditions and types
of securities not generally available to traditional asset managers, that is, managed futures.
Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of substantial loss exists in futures
trading. |
© 2007 Iowa Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved.