Some students
enter the hallowed halls of Harvard University looking for the
meaning of life, while others merely want an Ivy League sheepskin
to help them secure their first job. When Barron's recently
visited Harvard, however, we were searching for something far
more elusive: an investment strategy that will beat the market
while taking few risks.
We started off in Widener Memorial Library, and then went on to
Memorial Hall and Annenberg Hall without finding what we wanted.
We looked briefly in on University Hall, and we even crossed the
Charles River to the Harvard Business School. Still no luck. Then,
on a tip, we journeyed to downtown Boston, hard by South Station.
There we found an odd structure of steel and glass that looked
like some oversized version of an airport traffic-control tower.
The principal occupant was the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,
but hidden away on three of the building's floors was just what
we had been looking for: Harvard Management Co., stewards of the
nation's largest university endowment.
Well, of course.
Having just surpassed the $9 billion mark, Harvard's huge endowment
promises in coming years to be more important than ever in helping
the university to hire top-notch professors, erect new buildings
or offer aid to gifted students. In fact, in the past two years,
Harvard's annual budget of about $1.5 billion, has been relying
more on the endowment than on tuition.
But don't think for a minute that America's most prestigious university
is eating its seed corn. While the budget for the academic year
ended last June drained $322 million from the endowment, during
the same period Harvard Management earned the university $1.8
billion in markets all around the world.
Indeed, it's a source of great pride at Harvard Management that
its return of 26% for the 12 months ended last June was well ahead
of the average endowment's 17%. Harvard's investment performance
was good enough to put the school in the top 2% of the 352 university
endowments tracked by the National Association of College and
University Business Officers. Among returns on the nation's 50
largest endowments, Harvard's was edged out only by those of Emory,
Stanford and Duke [...].
The man in charge at Harvard Management, Jack Meyer, 51, came
to Harvard in 1990 from the Rockefeller Foundation and has assembled
a staff of 150, including some remarkably talented portfolio managers.
Among the most talented is Jonathon Jacobson, who hit the headlines
last summer when it was learned that he earned $6.1 million in
salary and bonus in 1995 because of the torrid performance of
the stock portfolio he runs for Harvard. Some Harvard professors
and students were outraged that the 35-year-old Jacobson made
nearly 25 times as much as Harvard President Neil Rudenstine,
who took home $251,000, and 50 times as much as what most tenured
faculty members earn.
What's more, there was concern at Harvard that the compensation
flap would undermine alumni support for the university's current
$2.1 billion fund-raising campaign, the largest ever by an American
university. Their reasoning: Why would alumni give to a university
that is not only the country's richest but goes around paying
millions to hot-shot money managers?
Meyer has refused to back down in the face of his Cambridge critics.
He defends Harvard management's compensation system, pointing
out that his portfolio managers earn big bonuses only if they
significantly outperform appropriate benchmark indexes over extended
periods. The base salaries for Harvard's money managers, Meyer
maintains, are modest by industry standards. Rudenstine told the
Harvard Crimson earlier this year that Jacobson's base pay is
$200,000 a year.
"Jon literally has provided over $300 million in value added
to the endowment" in the past five years, Meyer says. He explains
the $300 million isn't a tally of the absolute profits on Jacobsen's
portfolio, but those earned in excess of Jacoben's benchmark,
the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Says Meyer, "In a real sense,
Jon is perhaps the biggest benefactor Harvard has ever had."
There can be no disputing that Jacobson's performance has been
extraordinary. His portfolio generated a 29.7% annualized return
in the five years ended June 30, nearly double that of the S&P
500. That performance would put him in the top 1% of all mutual-fund
managers over that span.
The fireworks may not be over yet. That's because Jacobson's $6
million compensation last year was based on his showing for the
12 months ended in June 1995 and in prior years. In the most recent
fiscal year, ended this past June 30, Jacobson's portfolio gained
40.3%, far ahead of the S&P 500's advance of about 26%. That
means the young money manager may take home even more than $6
million this year.
Already people are talking about getting Harvard University
to distance itself from Harvard Management Co., perhaps by selling
the investment firm to Meyer and his fellow employees. But this
would be little more than window dressing. What the academics
in Harvard Yard have to realize is that top portfolio managers
get paid big bucks, whether they work for Wall Street firms or
nonprofit institutions. Meyer's critics should also know that
Yale, Princeton and many other schools pay their best portfolio
managers fat fees, but these lush compensation arrangements are
never made public because the managers involved work for outside
firms, that don't have to file detailed compensation data with
the Internal Revenue Service. Indeed, Harvard is one of the few
big schools that manages its money almost exclusively in-house.
Though Harvard Management has generally shunned publicity, in
several recent visits, Meyer and some of his top portfolio managers
discussed their investment strategies with Barron's in
unprecedented detail. They included some talk about their current
favorites, such as Eli Lilly, Corning, General Motors, GM Class H,
Philips Electronics, Guidant and some smaller issues.
But what's more interesting than the individual picks is how stocks
like these are incorporated into Harvard's overall investment
strategy. Meyer's marching orders to his portfolio managers are
pretty simple: If you identify an opportunity, seize it. But if
you don't have any great ideas, index your portfolio to the appropriate
benchmark, like the S&P 500 index for equity managers. This
approach ensures that Harvard is fully invested at all times,
with a lot of money geared to indexes and some funds riding on
his managers' best individual stock picks. It's an approach that
many savvy individual investors could use with good results.
"Meyer's strategy is a hybrid of optimism and cynicism. He's
cynical because he feels it's hard to beat the market. But he's
optimistic because he feels occasional anomalies can be identified
and exploited," says Byron Wien, Morgan Stanley's chief domestic-equity
strategist, who is also a Harvard benefactor and solicitor of
sizable gifts from Harvard alumni in the financial community.
Viewed more broadly, Meyer's strategy hinges heavily on diversification.
In the months after arriving from the Rockefeller Foundation back
in 1990, one of his biggest decisions was to settle on diversification
as a key theme. Relying on techniques of modern portfolio theory,
Meyer decided that to get the best returns with lowest level of
risk, Harvard needed to cut its exposure to publicly traded U.S.
stocks and bonds, and increase its investments in foreign stocks
commodities and private companies. Result: Right now the Harvard
endowment has about only about half its portfolio in U.S. stocks
and bonds, versus about 75% for the typical university endowment.
It can be argued that Harvard Management would have fared even
better the past five years if it had put more money to work in
the U.S. stock market. But Meyer argues that the benefits of diversification
are indisputable. "Diversification rules," he says. "It's powerful,
and our portfolio is a good deal less risky than the S&P 500."
Meyer is likely to be proven right or wrong in a bear market.
In theory at least, his portfolios should hold up better than
most in a downturn.
But for now, he can revel in the fact that he helped end a rocky
period in investing at Harvard, which included hefty losses on
real estate and oil properties in the late 1980s. In the past
five years, by contrast, Harvard's annual returns have been 16.1%,
beating the overall market as well as the average endowment. Says
Meyer proudly, "If we had generated the median performance among
endowments over the past five years, Harvard would have $1.4 billion
less than it does now." Given that Harvard takes about 5% of
its endowment each year for operating expenses, Meyer's extra
contribution of $1.4 billion allows the university an additional
$70 million or so to spend annually.
Harvard Management's largest single portfolio is invested
in U.S. stocks and run by Robert Atchinson, an 11-year veteran
of the firm. Atchinson's seven-member investment team keeps its
$2.6 billion invested by industry weighting in strict accordance
with the S&P 500. But they use their own research on individual
companies in an effort to beat the S&P index by underweighting
and overweighting various stocks within each industry group. This
approach is conservative in that it prevents Atchinson from making
huge industry bets like the one that got former Fidelity Magellan
chief Jeff Vinik into trouble with technology stocks last year.
Atchinson's crew seems to be thriving despite the contraints of
their technique. They have beaten the S&P 500 for three years
running, including a 33.9% showing in the year ended June 30.
Right now, Phillip Gross, Atchinson's health-care specialist,
likes Eli Lilly. So Lilly is over weighted in the portfolio, while
Merck and Johnson & Johnson have been underweighted. "It isn't that we don't like Merck and
Johnson & Johnson, it's just that we like Lilly even more,"
says Gross.
Gross favors Lilly largely because he's high on the company's
new drug for schizophrenia, called Zyprexa. Gross believes Zyprexa,
which hit the market in recent months, could be a big winner,
producing as much as $2 billion in annual sales for Lilly by the
year 2001 and taking significant market share from Johnson &
Johnson, whose Risperdal is now the dominant drug for schizophrenia,
which affects over two million Americans.
His favorite medical-devices company is Guidant, which should
benefit in 1997 from a new defibrillator, an implantable device
that helps people with rapid heartbeats. Guidant, Gross believes,
also has a winner with a new stent, a device used to hold open
coronary arteries after they're unclogged by balloon angioplasty.
Gross hopes the Guidant stent will allow it to gain market share
from J&J, which now controls the stent market. Guidant, at
53, trades at about 21 times projected 1997 profits.
In the auto sector, Harvard Management analyst Frank Dunau likes
GM and Chrysler better than Ford.
And its strategy of owning plenty of GM and Chrysler and very
little Ford has worked well this year.
Atchinson, a conglomerate and defense expert, is bullish on GM
Class H, the letter stock representing Hughes Electronics, which
is 75%-owned by General Motors. GM H, at 54, is down from a 1996
high of 68. But Atchinson values Hughes's various business, including
auto electronics, defense, DirecTV and satellites, at around $68
per share. Importantly, he believes GM is interested ``in doing
something to unlock the values in Hughes,'' which accounts for
about $20 of each GM share. Possibilities include GM repurchasing
the 25% of Hughes it doesn't own, or selling the business. Indeed,
there were rumors a few weeks ago that Raytheon
might be interested in buying Hughes.
Companies with significant ownership in other firms often attract
Harvard managers because they can profit by artfully isolating
the most attractive part of the company. Such is the case with
Philips Electronics,
the Dutch conglomerate that controls about 80% of publicly traded
Polygram,
the large recorded music company. Harvard managers feel the parts
of Philips excluding Polygram are undervalued. To play this theory,
Harvard has bought Philips shares and sold short Polygram in proportion
to Philips's ownership in the company. Philips trades for 40,
but the Philips ``stub'' excluding Polygram effectively cost around
20. That's less than seven times Philips's projected 1997 profits.
Atchinson believes Philips is serious about restructuring its
operations to focus on its strengths, primarily lighting and semiconductors,
while overhauling its large but underperforming consumer-electronics
business.
Then there's Cable Design Technologies,
a company that Atchison sees as a ``low-risk way to play the networking
business.'' The firm makes sophisticated cable with wide bandwidth
that can be used by companies to form computer networks. The company's
shares, at 29, trade at about 15 times projected profits in the
current fiscal year ending in July. ``Here you've got a company
growing at 25%, yet it's trading with a below-market multiple,''
Atchinson says.
Over at Harvard's other U.S. stock portfolio, run by
Jonathon Jacobson, the approach is more free-wheeling. A former
trader at Shearson Lehman Brothers, Jacobson seeks out values
that others have overlooked. "I don't feel I have an edge in
coming up with a better estimate on Intel than the consensus,"
he says. "I tend to focus on special situations: companies that
are undergoing complex financial restructuring, or where you have
a situation where good businesses have been masked by problems
in other areas. I like to see a catalyst for change."
Jacobson was a heavy buyer of Melville earlier this year when
its stock traded in the high 20s because he believed the company's
break-up into three separate corporations would prove to
be a winner. He calculated that CVS, Melville's drugstore operation
and best asset, as worth at least the price at which Melville's
stock was then trading. Melville, now called CVS,
has since risen into the low 40s.
Jacobson admits that in the current market, "It's getting very
hard to find things to do." Corning, one of his current favorites,
should benefit because it plans to spin off its underperforming
health-care-services division, enabling the company to focus on
its most attractive business: fiber-optic cable.
"Corning is the Intel of the fiber-optic business. They make
high-end, value-added cable," says Jacobson, who believes Corning's
fiber-optic business is worth at least the company's current share
price of 41, and that Corning shares could hit 50 in the next
year.
Another Jacobson favorite is Martin Marietta Materials, one of
the country's largest producers of construction aggregates, the
crushed rock used for highway construction. The company, formerly
part of Lockheed Martin, was fully spun off last month. ``Here's
a company that has been well run for some time, but it was part
of a large defense contractor,'' says Jacobson. He thinks the
company's shares, now at 23, could hit 30 in the next year.
Jeff Larson, who oversees Harvard's $328 million portfolio of
foreign stocks, doesn't just go in for straight stock investing.
He likes closed-end funds, which can often be bought at a discount
to the trading price of the individual stocks they hold. He searches
for bargains among closed-end funds that trade on markets as far
away as Bangkok and Taipei. But he does own some closed-end funds
that trade on the New York Stock Exchange as well. Among them
are France Growth Fund, New Germany Fund
and Spain Fund,
as well as the Latin America Discovery Fund
and Korean Investment Fund.
In addition to its traditional stock and bond investments, Harvard
runs a huge arbitrage operation. In fixed-income arbitrage, Harvard
uses borrowed money to increase its investments to about $15 billion
of offsetting long and short positions.
Harvard will say little about its bond arbitrage operation other
than that it avoids making interest-rate bets, instead focusing
on exploiting market inefficiencies that don't depend on the direction
of rates. "We're not like George Soros; we don't make leveraged
bets on the direction of the yen," Meyer asserts. Speculation
in the investment community is that one of Harvard's biggest trades
has involved a multibillion-dollar arbitrage involving Italian
bonds and interest-rate swaps, which are arranged by banks. The
profit on this trade alone for the year ended last June is said
to be about $50 million.
What Harvard saw in Italy was a highly unusual situation. Normally,
investors get higher interest rates on swaps than on government
bonds because government debt is viewed as more secure than anything
issued by banks. Yet as recently as 1995, Italian government debt
was paying a higher rate than swaps denominated in lire because
of the country's high deficits, weak credit rating and perverse
tax system. This created an opportunity. Harvard supposedly bought
several billion dollars of Italian government bonds, yielding
about 11%, and agreed to finance a comparable amount of interest-rate
swaps, at a rate of around 10% a year. This arbitrage was so attractive
because holders were virtually assured of making one percentage
point a year over the 10-year term of the swaps with the only
real risk being the highly unlikely one that Italy would default.
This Italian bond-swap arbitrage has been a big winner in the
past 18 months because Italian rates have plunged as confidence
in the Italian government has risen. This move, and the $50 million
profit it is said to have created, more than likely helped Harvard's
domestic and foreign bond portfolios do considerably better than
their benchmarks for the year ended in June.

The second-largest chunk of Harvard's endowment, its $1.5 billion
private equity portfolio, soared 43.9% last year, as some private
companies like United Auto Group,
a Harvard holding, took advantage of a bull market to make initial
public offerings. Meyer says Harvard runs about half of its private-equity
portfolio internally and farms out the rest. The focus in-house
has been more mature companies, like United Auto, a group of car
dealerships, rather than young startups. "Six or seven years
ago, we did a lot of startup, high-tech companies, dozens of them.
But we weren't particularly skillful at that. And we don't do
it anymore," Meyer says. The exposure to startups, he says, comes
through outside managers.
Harvard allocates 3% its assets to commodities, even though few
endowments have any exposure at all to this sector. Commodities
were a big winner for the university last year, returning 46.1%,
making it the single-best-performing part of the portfolio. This
largely represents some good luck because Harvard's commodity
investment is indexed to the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which
soared on the strength in oil prices.
The endowment's $539 million real-estate portfolio consists of
a diversified mix of about a dozen properties around the country.
Meyer says Harvard is off to a good start in its current year,
which began on July 1. The overall portfolio, which stood at $8.6
billion on June 30, recently passed the $9 billion mark, and is
ahead of its benchmarks by about two percentage points. Ever the
hedger, Meyer warns that Harvard management can't be expected
to continue to do so well - having beaten its benchmarks by 2.5
points in the past five years.
Later this month, Harvard Management's board of directors will
take up some of the hot issues surrounding the investment outfit,
including its compensation packages. Additional discussion is
likely at a regular March gathering.
Ronald Daniel, Harvard's treasurer and the chairman of Harvard
Management's board of directors, won't tip his hand about the
discussions, but his views are pretty clear. "We'll take a broad
look at a variety of issues, but we do it from a starting point
of real satisfaction and delight about Harvard Management's performance,"
he says, adding, "We don't want to fix something that's not broken."
As for the compensation controversy, he says: "People at Harvard
Management only get paid large amounts of money if they make enormous
amounts of money for Harvard."
Indeed,
some think the compensation issue has been overblown. Morgan Stanley's
Wien says that strong performance is more important to potential
big donors than the particulars of Harvard Management's pay system.
"Since Jack Meyer has come to Harvard, the investment performance
has been excellent, and I think that makes big givers feel better
about writing checks to Harvard now. In the past, when the investment
performance wasn't as good, people would say: 'I can manage the
money better than Harvard so I'll leave it to the university in
my will.' These people know the way the world works. Talented
money managers don't come cheaply."
Daniel maintains that even with the bonuses, Harvard Management
represents a cost-effective way for the university to run its
endowment. "We manage this for about half of what it would cost
us for comparable performance by outsiders," Daniel maintains.
In fact, bonuses and all, Harvard Management cost the university
about $35 million to operate in 1995, or about one half-percent
of total assets, which isn't high by institutional standards.
Meyer points out that the Harvard Management's base fee is only
about one-third of a percentage point.
"It's my sense that from an economic standpoint, Harvard should
keep Harvard Management as it is," Meyer says. "It's a good
deal for Harvard."
True enough. But once academics get involved, who knows how foolish
the outcome will be?

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